Winds along the central Oregon coastal terminals will be the highest with gusts around 25 kt especially near KONP through 00Z Sunday. Heavier showers could cause brief periods of MVFR conditions through the overnight hours. A weak low continues to push northward over and along the coastline which will cause winds to increase and possibly bring another round of light showers to the region. Ceilings expected to settle between 3000-4500 ft. Widespread VFR continues across the region as onshore flow strengthens through the early evening. Bottom line, confidence is growing that significantly warmer temperatures are likely to impact the area by the end of next week into the weekend. Overnight lows also look quite warm by the end of next week, likely rising into the upper 50s or even low 60s. Even several coastal locations are showing a roughly 30 percent chance to break 80 by Friday as offshore flow takes hold. NBM probabilistic guidance has responded accordingly in depicting a 50-90 percent chance for temperatures to surpass 80 degrees in the Willamette Valley each day from Friday into the weekend, with a 20-50 percent chance to break 90. This configuration will allow a thermal trough to set up west of the Cascades and induce offshore flow. WPC ensemble clusters are in better agreement compared to 24 hours ago and depict a stout ridge of high pressure with the ridge axis east of the Cascades by Friday. NBM guidance is 60-80 percent chance for temperatures to climb above 70 degrees in the Willamette Valley Thursday, however the larger warmup look to commence on Friday as medium range guidance continues to converge on stronger ridging for the end of next week. The ridge will gradually expand northward as the mean trough position establishes south of the Gulf of Alaska. The upper level trough currently over the northeast Pacific should be east into the Rockies by Wednesday morning, allowing high pressure to build over the region through the day. Models and their ensembles are in better agreement with this trend especially for late in the week. The warming trend continues through the end of the week. This will leave the region under weak flow aloft and surface. Tuesday is a transition from cool and damp to warmer and drier period as the upper low heads east. High temperatures will generally reside in the low to mid 60s through Monday, about 3-5 degrees below seasonal normals. QPF amounts remain on the lighter side with this feature, topping out around a quarter inch in the interior valleys up to a half inch in the surrounding higher terrain on Monday. The daylight hours on Sunday look to be dry then rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday as another low tracks to northern California Sunday night and then lifts northward across Oregon on Monday. NBM thunderstorm probabilities remain in the 10-15 percent range across much of the area today, but opted to keep thunderstorms out of the forecast given the shallow and weak nature of the instability as most model soundings do not show showers gaining enough depth to reach charge separation. Shower coverage and intensity this afternoon into early evening as a few breaks in the clouds allow for pockets of marginal surface based instability. Currently a negatively tilted upper level trough extends to southwest Oregon with weak cyclonic flow over northwest Oregon. Complex upper level patter over the northeast Pacific with multiple low centers rotating around each other. Conditions will trend warmer and dryer through the middle of next week, with significantly above normal temperatures likely by late next week as strong high pressure builds over the region. Seasonably cool and cloudy conditions with periodic shower activity will continue for the next several days under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure. Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 527 PM PDT Sat May 6 2023 NW swell 4 ft.Īrea Discussion for - Portland, OR (on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionĪrea Forecast Discussion. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.įri.NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. Thu.NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening. PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
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